Israel conducted numerous airstrikes in 2023 that disrupt weapons production facilities in Syria. Seeks for Syria to produce advanced conventional weapons, including manufacturing missiles and UAVs. Installing a new advanced centrifuge cascade and plans to install several more, however. Reduced its production rate of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and diluted a small portion of its HEU stockpile. The table below lists some of Iran’s strategic objectives, their status, and how Iran could advance them. The war in Israel is the focus of international attention, and Iran may exploit the situation to advance one or more of its strategic objectives. Israel also warned that it would consider striking Damascus, Syria. The Israeli government threatened to attack LH with the assistance of the US carrier strike group if LH continues to engage in the war with Hamas. LH conducted artillery strikes into Israel for the second consecutive day and least six PIJ members attempted to cross into Israeli territory from southern Lebanon.Iranian-backed militias in Iraq attacked US forces in Syria in March while Ameri advocated for diplomatic engagement with the United States to resolve issues in Iraq. Ameri’s statement came after the United States announced it will send a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to support Israel and will supply Israeli forces with military equipment and ammunition. Head of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization Hadi al Ameri threatened to attack US forces if the United States intervenes in the war to support Israel.The official added that Iran would send fighters into Israel from Syria to attack northern and eastern Israel. Missile strikes from Lebanon and Yemen would require the Iranian-backed militants in these countries-LH and the Houthi movement, respectively-to conduct the strikes. An unidentified Iranian official told Western media on October 8 that Iran would respond to an Israeli attack with missile strikes on Israel from Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen.ISW previously assessed that LH and Palestinian militia attacks could expand Hamas’s war with Israel into a second front. i This follows a warning from an unidentified Iranian official that Iran would respond to an Israeli attack on Iran with missile strikes from across the Middle East. Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani said separately on October 9 that Iran would give a “devastating response” to any Israeli attack on Iran. Members of the Axis of Resistance have issued threats that may lead the war between Israel and Palestinian militias to expand into the region. Israel has mobilized 300,000 military reservists in Israel amid reports of preparations for a ground incursion into Gaza. The Israeli defense minister imposed a “complete siege” on Gaza, which cuts off the over two million people from electricity, food, water, and fuel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on more than 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)-affiliated positions, including operational headquarters in Gaza on October 9.These attacks are consistent with Hamas‘ stated objective for the Al Aqsa Flood Operation to extend to the West Bank. Palestinian militias conducted attacks against Israelis in the West Bank on October 9 in response to calls from The Lions’ Den (TLD), a West Bank militia that Israel Hayom claims is receiving funding from Hamas.The Al Qassam Brigade also fired rockets into Israeli territory on October 9, including into Jerusalem as Hamas called on people in the city to attack Israelis and be the forefront of resistance Hamas’ militant wing the Al Qassam Brigade launched an attack into the Israeli town of Rahat, which is approximately 30 kilometers east of Gaza on October 9.Iran’s Axis of Resistance is aligning itself with Hamas’ operation, however. Israel is conducting airstrikes in Gaza to retaliate. Hamas launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel on October 7 which included sending hundreds of fighters into Israel to attack nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas. The situation could expand the war to a second front. Hamas is expanding its incursions into southern Israel as Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) clash with Israeli security forces in the northern province of the country. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates weekly on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.
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